Choosing the right yield goal

As harvest wraps up and planning for the next growing season begins, one critical decision looms large: choosing the right yield goal. Whether you’re sampling your own fields or relying on an agronomist or fertilizer dealer, the yield goal you select will directly influence your fertilizer recommendations. Set it too high, and you risk wasting money and harming the environment. Set it too low, and you may miss your field’s true potential. So how do you strike the right balance? Evaluate historical crop yield and set realistic goals.

Historical Yield

But how does one decide what is the appropriate yield goal for each field? I take calls from producers in the winter to explain their soil test results to them. On many occasions I ask the producer what the corn yield was for the field in question the previous year. They would say “205 bushels”. But the producer has requested a 270 bushel per acre yield goal on the soil test. Then, I would ask for a rough estimate of what the 10-year average yield for corn is on the field. They might say, “around 215 bushels”. I then would say, “well, why are you asking for a 270-bushel yield goal”. He says, “that is what I would like to raise on this field.”

 Environmental Impact

It is wonderful to have goals to strive for. But we need to be very realistic in setting yield goals to avoid over applying fertilizer. Fertilizer costs money, and we also need to be aware of the environmental impact of excess fertility application. In Nebraska, we currently have the issue of nitrate in the groundwater supply. Overapplying nitrogen year after year will do nothing to mitigate the groundwater-nitrate risk. Another problem from overfertilization is excess phosphorus being washed from the field. Heavy rainfall can cause erosion, causing phosphorus to end up in nearby waterways. This eventually ends up in the Gulf of Mexico. It then causes algal blooms which create hypoxia. This eats up the oxygen in the water, killing the marine life.

Realistic Goals

To set a realistic yield goal, use a 10-year average yield for the field and add 10%. In the case of the above producer, he said the average yield over 10 years was 215-bushel corn. Adding 10% to 215, we come up with 236.5 bushels. I would round down to 235. We also need to remember that all soil is not capable of yielding 300-bushel irrigated corn. Everyone has a field that is not as productive. It is wise to set goals within the production capability of the field.

Ambitious yield goals are admirable, but they must be grounded in reality. Using a 10-year average plus 10% is a reliable method for choosing the right yield goal that reflects both field potential and sound environmental stewardship. Overapplying nutrients does not just hurt your wallet , it also contributes to groundwater contamination, runoff, and downstream ecological damage. By aligning your goals with historical performance, you can spend less on fertilizer, reduce environmental risk, and still aim for progress.